Why Prices Move (And Value Doesn’t), Part 4: The Business Cycle
Stock prices almost always move before the economic data catches up. Here’s why — and why trying to trade that pattern is usually a losing game.
Stock prices almost always move before the economic data catches up. Here’s why — and why trying to trade that pattern is usually a losing game.
You’ve learned the five statements. Now here’s the order to read them — and why that sequence turns individual pieces into a complete picture.
Inflation doesn’t just raise prices at the grocery store. For investors, it erodes real returns, drives interest rates higher, and exposes which businesses can protect themselves — and which ones can’t.
For decades, a company could owe billions in future lease payments — for stores, planes, equipment — without a single dollar of that obligation appearing on its balance sheet. A 2019 accounting rule change ended that. Here’s what moved, what it means, and how to read it.
When the price of borrowing money changes, the mathematical value of future earnings changes with it — even when those earnings haven’t changed at all. That’s why rising interest rates send stock prices lower, sometimes dramatically, without any deterioration in the underlying businesses.
The income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement are summaries. The notes explain the assumptions behind them. The MD&A tells you what management wants you to think about the year. Neither is optional reading.
The stock price you see today is not the same thing as what the business is worth. Understanding that distinction is the foundation of everything that follows in this series.
The income statement tells you what the business earned. The balance sheet tells you what the business is built on: the assets it owns, the obligations it carries, and whether the foundation underneath those earnings is as solid as the reported numbers suggest.
An honest look at when active investing might seem to make sense — and why the math still usually favors the simple index approach.
How to decide the right mix of stocks and bonds for where you are in life — and exactly what to do once all the pieces are in place.