Efficient Markets, Part 1: What Is a Random Walk?
A century of academic research suggests that stock prices move like a drunk wandering home — each step is independent of the last, and no one can predict which direction…
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Efficient Markets — A Random Walk
What the Evidence Actually Says
A century of academic research suggests that markets are far better at pricing stocks than most investors assume. This series takes that argument seriously — presenting the efficient market hypothesis honestly and on its own terms, then showing where disciplined active investing still finds its edge.
Part 1
Part 2
Efficient Markets, Part 2: Why Technical Analysis Fails
If past price movements don't predict future ones, then every chart pattern, trend line, and "the stock is breaking out" alert is just noise dressed up as signal. Imagine someone…
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Efficient Markets, Part 3: Why Fundamental Analysis Is Harder Than It Looks
If past price movements don't predict future ones, every chart is useless. Fine. But what about studying the company itself — its earnings, its growth, its competitive position? Efficient markets…
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Efficient Markets, Part 4: The Efficient Market Hypothesis — Three Forms
We have seen what happens when the hypothesis attacks technical analysis. We have seen what happens when it attacks fundamental analysis. Now it is time to meet the argument itself…
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Efficient Markets, Part 5: The Case for Index Funds
Efficient Markets, Part 5: The Case for Index Funds If you can’t beat the market — and the evidence says most people can’t — maybe the right move is to…
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