Efficient Markets

If you can’t beat the market — and the evidence says most people can’t — maybe the right move is to own the whole thing.

We have seen what happens when the hypothesis attacks technical analysis. We have seen what happens when it attacks fundamental analysis. Now it is time to meet the argument itself — all three versions of it, laid out side by side.

If past price movements don’t predict future ones, every chart is useless. Fine. But what about studying the company itself — its earnings, its growth, its competitive position? Efficient markets have a challenge for that approach too, and it’s one every serious investor needs to understand.

If past price movements don’t predict future ones, then every chart pattern, trend line, and “the stock is breaking out” alert is just noise dressed up as signal.

A century of academic research suggests that stock prices move like a drunk wandering home — each step is independent of the last, and no one can predict which direction the next one will go. This series takes that argument seriously.